If we’re in for a batch of history repeating itself, then we’ve got a decade of cheap solar polysilicon coming for us. The first image below is from Bernreuter Research and it shows the pattern of polysilicon prices movements in 2011 vs 2023. The second image shows polysilicon pricing from 2004, to 2011, and then from that price drop through 2020+.
One reason we *might* have the same ongoing pricing trends (i.e. cheap poly) is that China is massively expanding capacity. While demand is growing, it seems capacity is leading.
Polysilicon Price Trend 2023 vs 2011
Polysilicon Price, Historical 2004-2020
