China hit 2.4 million tons of polysilicon production capacity at the end of 2023, and notes that the nation will end 2024 with 4 million tons of capacity if all announced production plans are realized

said. “If everything announced got built, China would end 2024 with 4 million tons of production capacity, and back in 2023 the peak number for all potential facilities was 7 million tons. Half of it, however, was ‘dependent on market conditions’ and therefore canceled.”

Polysilicon prices fell to $6.70/kg last week, after remaining stable at a historic low of $8/kg throughout the first few months of 2024.

This has accounted for roughly half of the simultaneous drop in module prices, which were also stable for the first few months of 2024, from $0.130/W to $0.122/W

2023 ended with 1.43 million tons of output, which corresponds to approximately 550 GW

With just a little further adoption of thinner wafers, 2.4 million tons would be enough to make 1,000 GW of solar once a usage rate of 2.4 g/W is reached

In the past, the marginal cost of production was $7/kg, but with the addition of so many extra-large and modern facilities in the past two years, we believe this has dropped significantly,” he explained. “Daqo New Energy recently claimed that its Q4 2023 marginal cost of production was just CNY 40.69 ($5.60)/kg, although Daqo’s full-year cost, including sales, was $6.70/kg – the same as the current market price.”

we expect that the polysilicon price will stay above $5.50/kg for at least a year. Module prices should fall to $0.110/W

seems to be more a case of very low utilization rates throughout the supply chain, some as low as 20%



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