China’s 2024 domestic production target is ~750GW vs. Exawatt’s global demand forecast of ~550GW; 80-100GW likely from outside China

Chinese installations in the first two months of 2024 were very strong (up ~80% y/y)

poly prices appeared to stabilize in Q1, spot prices have been dipping the past few weeks to below cash costs for leading manufacturers

production continued to grow in Q1’24, with Mar’24 production up ~75% y/y

Several large poly facilities are expected to begin or continue ramping up production in Q2, including those from DQ, Hoshine and Xinyi, maintaining downward pressure on prices

Exawatt sees limited COGS reductions for Chinese module manufacturers of just ~1-2c/W over the next five years for PERC and TOPCon

Exawatt sees ~2c/W COGS reduction through Q4’29 and ~1c/W or less given a medium-term outlook for USD deflation relative to RMB combined with other headwinds such as higher aluminum costs

TOPCon COGS/W is falling below PERC COGS/W, and TOPCon is expected to maintain a cost advantage vs. heterojunction (HJT)


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