EPC crunch might limit 2024 utility scale solar growth

He guesses that the top 10 EPCs represent 15-18GW of overall capacity and 80% of the EPC industry, suggesting the overall EPC capability could be just 21GW.

Our contact shared that “supply chain issues continue to push things to the right. A lot of projects are pushing to the right. [He doesn’t think] 2024 is going to be +30% y/y. 2024 could flat to up 5% only.”

EPCs in the recent past “took on crazy work in past years” and now the [EPC] focus is on improving the bottom line

Recently, we wrote here that EPC capacity could be a new bottleneck. We asked our contact about EPC bottlenecks and what the latest dynamics are. Some EPCs have exited the business, such as Ames Construction, which represented 1-1.5GW of annual capacity. There were credible Tier 1 EPCs that took on projects that were losing money, thinking they “could turn it around but labor quality has not been good and margins are bad.”

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