latest scenario from market researcher Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BloombergNEF) arrives at only 880 GW in 2030
the 2022 results presentation from Chinese polysilicon manufacturer GCL Technology predicted 1.5 TW
Radovan Kopecek, co-founder and director of the International Solar Energy Research Center Konstanz – have been saying that PV will enter the terawatt age as early as 2027
the scenario published by Dr. Dahlmeier Financial Risk Management AG, however, annual PV installations exceed 1 TW already in 2026
scenario from BloombergNEF entails a CAGR of only 10.4%
group of more than 50 PV scientists regards a CAGR of 25% as necessary to reach climate targets
CEO Dr. Uwe Dahlmeier argues that a historical PV growth rate of 36% is almost universally found in literature
An analysis shows that PV’s CAGR indeed averaged at 36.6% over almost half a century from 1975 through 2022 (see chart); this analysis was presented by Johannes Bernreuter, Head of Bernreuter Research
Even in PV’s weakest growth phase between 1984 and 1996 (after the oil crisis abated and solar incentives were scrapped), it reached a CAGR of 15%, which makes BloombergNEF’s scenario worthless
After another period with a lower CAGR of 19.5% between 2012 and 2019, PV rebounded to an average CAGR of almost 40% in the last four years