Nation’s largest residential installer up 20-50%, potentially 60-90%

Freedom Forever had ~400MW PTO in 2023 and expects 480-600MW to PTO in 2024, which suggests volume could be up 20-50% according to this metric

believes Freedom can also grow sales and installations by 60-90% in 2024

confidence stems from active sales rep data, which is a useful leading indicator that shows sales rep productivity has increased 25% m/m for Freedom

more optimistic view of the 2024 resi solar market with his estimate of down 5-10% vs. our view of down 15% (see here) and Ohm Analytics’ forecast of down 19%

players who have survived the challenging US resi solar environment for the past year and half have higher productivity and could make up for the shortfall of all the players that have gone out of business/exited the market.

2024 financing mix to be 20-30% loan, 5-7% cash, and 65% TPO vs. 45% loan and 55% TPO in 2023

2024 inverter mix is still expected to be 80% SEDG, 20% ENPH, and a negligible amount of TSLA in 2024

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